Russia's fiscal position is deteriorating rapidly as energy revenues face mounting pressure from international sanctions and weak global oil markets. The country's oil and gas sales, which form the backbone of government funding, are projected to decline by approximately 23% in September compared to the previous year, forcing Moscow to explore alternative revenue sources.

The Kremlin's financial challenges have intensified following the European Union's 18th sanctions package, which replaced the fixed $60-per-barrel price cap with a more flexible mechanism that further reduces Russian oil export revenues. Simultaneously, global oil price weakness driven by ample supply and subdued demand has compounded the revenue shortfall, creating a perfect storm for Russia's energy-dependent budget.

In response to these pressures, Russian authorities are implementing structural changes to reduce budget vulnerability to commodity price volatility. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced plans to gradually lower the oil price threshold in Russia's budget rule from $60 per barrel to $55 by 2030, while exploring additional taxation measures targeting high-income individuals and luxury consumption to diversify government revenue streams.